Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.9 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 49.4% red zone pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 6th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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