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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 20

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 34.9 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 49.4% red zone pass rate.
  • The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 6th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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