Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the league), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 49.4% red zone pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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