Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+112/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the league against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (73.9%).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded the 3rd-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.62 per game this year.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks project as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a big 14.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 50.6% red zone pass rate.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.