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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -138.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (73.5%).

The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 50.2% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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