Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-190).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have utilized some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the league), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 51.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.

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