Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-175).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seattle Seahawks linebackers project as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 51.0% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.

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