Brock Purdy Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a heavy 14.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Brock Purdy's rushing efficiency has improved this year, compiling 3.16 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 2.11 rate last year.
The Arizona Cardinals defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games since the start of last season, giving up 4.91 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
Brock Purdy has generated a mere 4.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in the NFL when it comes to quarterbacks (13th percentile).
Brock Purdy has been among the worst quarterbacks in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 0.60 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 17th percentile.

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