Brock Purdy Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 22, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Brock Purdy to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (10.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.8% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in run blocking.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.7 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects Brock Purdy to accumulate 3.0 carries in this contest, on average: the 10th-least of all quarterbacks.
Brock Purdy has grinded out just 5.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the smallest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (19th percentile).