Brock Purdy Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 43.9% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league last year at blocking for rushers.
Brock Purdy has run for significantly more yards per game (11.0) this year than he did last year (3.0).
Brock Purdy's running effectiveness has gotten better this year, totaling 5.16 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 2.11 mark last year.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are projected by the projection model to call just 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
This year, the tough Eagles run defense has conceded a paltry 83.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 3rd-best in the league.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Philadelphia's group of DTs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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