Brock Purdy Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Passing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 242.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 236.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 242.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Vikings defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
With a remarkable total of 265.0 adjusted passing yards per game (89th percentile), Brock Purdy has been as one of the leading passers in the league last year.
With a fantastic 69.6% Adjusted Completion% (100th percentile) last year, Brock Purdy has been as one of the most accurate QBs in the league.
Brock Purdy ranks as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league last year, averaging a stellar 9.54 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6 points.
The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.3 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all air attack metrics across the board.