Brock Purdy Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Passing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 22, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 229.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 228.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 229.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
Brock Purdy has been among the most effective passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 8.09 yards-per-target while checking in at the 91st percentile.
The New York Giants cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.7 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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