Brock Purdy Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Passing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 249.5 (-141/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 250.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 249.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.
Brock Purdy has thrown for substantially more adjusted yards per game (262.0) this season than he did last season (151.0).
Brock Purdy's passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 66.4% to 69.9%.
Brock Purdy's 9.43 adjusted yards-per-target this season marks a noteworthy gain in his passing efficiency over last season's 8.0% rate.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (269.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is indicated by the 49ers being an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the 49ers to pass on 50.7% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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