Brock Purdy Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 249.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the NFL (43.2 per game) this year.
Brock Purdy has thrown for substantially more adjusted yards per game (260.0) this season than he did last season (151.0).
With an outstanding 69.2% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) this year, Brock Purdy places among the most on-target quarterbacks in football.
Brock Purdy's pass-game effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, notching 9.30 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 7.97 mark last season.
This year, the shaky Jaguars defense has conceded a whopping 279.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average).
The projections expect Brock Purdy to throw 32.3 passes in this game, on balance: the 6th-fewest among all QBs.

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