Brock Purdy Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Passing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 216.5 (+102/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 216.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 216.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, surrendering 7.98 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.15 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.