Brock Purdy Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Passing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 229.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 239.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 229.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 9th-most yards in the league (246.0 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the league against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (73.9%).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.78 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks project as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a big 14.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.