Brock Purdy Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Completions

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.0 (-120/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 17.0 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the league), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.