Brock Purdy Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 6, 2024 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread implies an extreme running game script for the 49ers, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to run on 49.3% of their downs: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the 49ers this year (a monstrous 61.8 per game on average).
After making up 6.9% of his team's carries last year, Brock Purdy has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now comprising 14.7%.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the projections to run just 61.6 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Arizona's group of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 4th-best in football.

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