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Brian Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-120).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -190 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have just 128.9 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.In this week's contest, Brian Robinson is predicted by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs with 12.8 rush attempts.Brian Robinson's 58.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season represents a material gain in his rushing prowess over last season's 47.0 figure.As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Tampa Bay's DE corps has been very bad this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.The Commanders have been the 6th-least run-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 37.5% run rate.The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may fall-off.After taking on 60.5% of his team's run game usage last season, Brian Robinson has been less involved in the rushing attack this season, now accounting for only 47.2%.This year, the fierce Buccaneers run defense has conceded a measly 100.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-fewest in the league.
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