Brian Robinson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Brian Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 58.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to garner 11.8 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
Brian Robinson has picked up 63.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (87th percentile).

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to be much less involved in his team's running game this week (41.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (52.4% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Brian Robinson's ground effectiveness (3.70 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (5th percentile among RBs).
Brian Robinson has been among the worst RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging just 2.69 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 17th percentile.