Brian Robinson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Brian Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-144/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to accumulate 16.0 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
Brian Robinson has garnered 53.4% of his offense's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Brian Robinson has generated 51.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (76th percentile).

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Brian Robinson's running effectiveness (3.29 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (2nd percentile among running backs).

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