Brian Robinson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+197/-294).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -283 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -294.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-most TDs in the league (1.17 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to be much less involved in his offense's run game near the goal line this week (56.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (80.0% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

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