Brian Robinson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+145/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -196 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 10th-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 44.9% red zone run rate.
Brian Robinson has garnered 39.5% of his team's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-most TDs in the league (1.15 per game) versus the New York Giants defense this year.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
The New York Giants defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

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