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Brian Robinson

Brian Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns

Brian Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.

Brian Robinson's 47.3% Route Participation% this season indicates a material growth in his pass attack volume over last season's 33.5% figure.

The Commanders O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders.

Brian Robinson's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 90.4% to 81.3%.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Browns defense has conceded a feeble 78.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 7th-lowest rate in football.

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