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Brian Robinson

Brian Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 20

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Commanders, who are giant -8.5-point underdogs.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Commanders to pass on 60.3% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.

The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (a whopping 60.1 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Commanders to call the 2nd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

Brian Robinson's 1.3 adjusted catches per game this season represents a substantial drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 2.4 mark.

Brian Robinson's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 90.4% to 83.0%.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Detroit's safety corps has been tremendous this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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