Brian Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).
Key Factors
Favors Over
The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
Brian Robinson has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (31.7% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (20.0%).
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Commanders profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.
Favors Under
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.