Brian Robinson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has surrendered the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (84.4%) versus RBs since the start of last season (84.4%).
The Arizona Cardinals defensive tackles rank as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Brian Robinson has been among the worst pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging a measly 0.7 receptions per game while checking in at the 15th percentile among RBs.
Brian Robinson has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among RBs, hauling in just 74.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 24th percentile.

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