Brian Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
Brian Robinson has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (31.7% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (20.0%).
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Commanders profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Brian Robinson has accrued a feeble -4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 12th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Brian Robinson rates as one of the bottom RBs in football at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 2nd percentile.
The Patriots pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.44 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 6th-fewest in the league.