Brian Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 13.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 66.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

As it relates to air yards, Brian Robinson ranks in the paltry 11th percentile among RBs this year, averaging just -4.0 per game.
With a subpar 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (3rd percentile) this year, Brian Robinson stands among the leading pass-catching running backs in the league in the open field.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.39 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 2nd-fewest in the league.
As it relates to defensive tackles pass-rushing, Philadelphia's DT corps has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

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