Brian Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Commanders offensive approach to lean 12.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects the Commanders as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Brian Robinson's 31.5% Route% this year marks a a noteworthy gain in his air attack workload over last year's 20.0% mark.
When talking about pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Washington Commanders ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Commanders to run the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Brian Robinson has accrued a puny -4.0 air yards per game this year: just 15th percentile when it comes to running backs.
With a subpar 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Brian Robinson places among the best pass-catching RBs in the league in the open field.
This year, the tough Atlanta Falcons defense has given up a meager 18.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 2nd-fewest in football.
Since the start of last season, the stout Falcons pass defense has allowed the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing RBs: a feeble 5.9 YAC.