Brian Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 10.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Commanders as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a massive 61.4 plays per game.
Brian Robinson has gone out for more passes this season (33.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (20.0%).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 11th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to air yards, Brian Robinson grades out in the paltry 21st percentile among RBs since the start of last season, averaging just -1.0 per game.
The Commanders O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Brian Robinson has been one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among RBs, hauling in just 74.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 23rd percentile.