Brian Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+104/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 9.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Commanders are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.3 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 8.75 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 9th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Brian Robinson has compiled a measly -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 21st percentile among RBs.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Brian Robinson has been among the bottom RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging just 6.0 yards per game while checking in at the 23rd percentile among running backs.
Brian Robinson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football among running backs, completing a mere 71.3% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 19th percentile.