Brian Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 12.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point gain in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Brian Robinson has been more heavily utilized in his team's pass attack.

Favors Under

Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.
Brian Robinson has totaled a puny -4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 10th percentile among running backs.
Brian Robinson is positioned as one of the worst RBs in the league at picking up extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.
The Dolphins defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 23.0) to RBs this year.
This year, the fierce Dolphins defense has conceded a meager 78.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 8th-lowest rate in football.