Brian Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects Brian Robinson to garner 13.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
Brian Robinson has garnered 60.5% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders as the 3rd-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.1% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the impact it has on all ground game metrics), the O-line of the Washington Commanders ranks as the 9th-worst in football last year.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New England's safety corps has been terrific this year, profiling as the best in football.

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