Brian Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this week's contest, Brian Robinson is projected by the predictive model to slot into the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs with 14.1 carries.
After taking on 52.4% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Brian Robinson has played a bigger part in the rushing attack this season, currently comprising 65.7%.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Commanders offensive approach to lean 12.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
The model projects the Washington Commanders as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 35.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Commanders to run the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
As it relates to blocking for rushers (and the influence it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Washington Commanders grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year.

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