Brian Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 5, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
In this contest, Brian Robinson is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 86th percentile among running backs with 15.0 carries.
After comprising 52.4% of his team's carries last season, Brian Robinson has been called on more in the running game this season, now comprising 66.3%.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Chicago's collection of DEs has been dreadful this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 34.6% run rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year at run-game blocking.

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