Brian Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Brian Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all RBs, Brian Robinson grades out in the 93rd percentile for carries this year, making up 60.8% of the workload in his team's ground game.

Favors Under

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 13.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to run on 29.7% of their downs: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
At the moment, the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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