Brian Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-134/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to earn 13.4 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to be a less important option in his team's rushing attack this week (51.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (61.9% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.