Brian Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 14, 2022 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to garner 13.8 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
The Chicago Bears defensive ends project as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 9th-least run-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.3% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to be much less involved in his team's run game this week (51.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (64.3% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in run blocking.

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