Brevin Jordan Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Brevin Jordan

NFL · Player Props

Brevin Jordan

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Brevin Jordan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 69.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.4 plays per game.
Brevin Jordan has been much more involved in his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 48.4% of snaps compared to just 36.2% last year.
Brevin Jordan's receiving skills have tailed off this year, accumulating a measly 1.3 yards per game vs 2.5 last year.
Brevin Jordan's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.7% to 37.0%.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.5%) to tight ends this year (62.5%).

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