Brevin Jordan Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Brevin Jordan

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Brevin Jordan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Brevin Jordan's 20.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 76th percentile for TEs.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (77.1%) versus tight ends this year (77.1%).

Favors Under

Brevin Jordan's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.7% to 48.1%.
The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans have used motion in their offense on 30.9% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.