Brevin Jordan Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Brevin Jordan

NFL · Player Props

Brevin Jordan

TE · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Brevin Jordan Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+105/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 6th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
Brevin Jordan has posted a colossal 23.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.7 plays per game.
Brevin Jordan's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.7% to 32.9%.
Brevin Jordan's pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, notching a mere 0.82 yards-per-target vs a 6.32 rate last year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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