Brevin Jordan Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Brevin Jordan

TE · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Brevin Jordan Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-101/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Brevin Jordan has accumulated a whopping 20.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among tight ends.
Brevin Jordan's 20.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 76th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

Brevin Jordan's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.7% to 48.1%.
Brevin Jordan's receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 1.22 yards-per-target vs a 6.32 mark last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.