Brevin Jordan Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Brevin Jordan

TE · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Brevin Jordan Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Brevin Jordan to notch 4.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Brevin Jordan has been among the least effective receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a lowly 6.31 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 11th percentile.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.31 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-least in the NFL.