Brevin Jordan Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Brevin Jordan

NFL · Player Props

Brevin Jordan

TE · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Brevin Jordan Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+426/-953).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -949 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -953.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
Brevin Jordan has posted a colossal 23.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among tight ends.
Brevin Jordan's 22.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 78th percentile for tight ends.
Brevin Jordan grades out in the 81st percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.27 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Brevin Jordan to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (11.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
Brevin Jordan's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.7% to 32.9%.
The Tennessee Titans defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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