Brevin Jordan Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Brevin Jordan

TE · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Brevin Jordan Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+404/-867).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +429 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +404.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Brevin Jordan has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.3% since the start of last season, which places him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Brevin Jordan has received a whopping 8.8% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Brevin Jordan's 21.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 79th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.