Brett Rypien TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Brett Rypien

QB · Denver Broncos

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Brett Rypien TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+215/-290).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -290 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -290.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will be rolling with backup QB Brett Rypien in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Denver Broncos O-line has given their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in the league vs. the New York Jets defense this year (66.5%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.