Breshad Perriman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Breshad Perriman

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Breshad Perriman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+228/-357).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +229 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +228.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Breshad Perriman to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (16.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.8% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has allowed the 9th-most TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.11 per game since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.3%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (60.3%).
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.