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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Breece Hall Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 59.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Jets are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

This week, Breece Hall is expected by the projections to rank in the 81st percentile when it comes to RBs with 14.9 rush attempts.

Breece Hall has been a more important option in his team's rushing attack this year (75.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (55.4%).

Breece Hall has averaged 57.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL when it comes to RBs (83rd percentile).

With an excellent record of 3.77 yards after contact (88th percentile), Breece Hall ranks among the most efficient RBs in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New York Jets to run on 40.3% of their downs: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

The model projects the Jets to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Jets have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game efficiency when facing better conditions in this game.

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Breece Hall's running efficiency has declined this year, totaling a mere 3.61 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.39 figure last year.

More Breece Hall Player Props

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