Breece Hall Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM EST

Analysis

Breece Hall Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-112/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (145 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The New York Jets have used some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jets rank as the 8th-least run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 32.1% run rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best DE corps in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.