Breece Hall Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).
Key Factors
Favors Over
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 39.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The New York Jets have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Favors Under
The New York Jets will be starting backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 101 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles profile as the 9th-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.